‘rhinoceros’ inflation may be hard to stop, says Deutsche Bank

© . FILE PHOTO: Deutsche Bank’s logo is seen on the roof of the bank’s headquarters in Moscow, Sept. 14, 2015. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin LONDON () – An inflation wave unleashed by the war in Ukraine and the response to COVID may be difficult to stop due to a shock in the energy price, sanctions exacerbating supply chain problems and labor shortages, according to Deoktsche Bank Wealth Management. “The rhinoceros in the room has been unleashed and may now prove difficult to stop,” Christian Nolting, CIO Wealth Management Global, said in a research paper, adding that consumer price inflation in the United States had reached the 7% threshold. exceeded. † Longer-term problems, such as the shrinking workforce and the growing share of GDP generated by labour-intensive services, are likely to persist and inflation is therefore unlikely to return to pre-dating levels in the coming years. pandemic.” Nolting said the sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine exacerbate supply chain problems, while the oil and gas price shock could push prices even further. “In advanced economies, already high inflation rates may now be even higher given the conflict-induced oil and gas price shock,” he said. “Sanctions and companies ceasing operations in Russia are exacerbating supply chain problems,” he said. “In addition, shortages of platinum, palladium or even neon hinder the manufacture of intermediates.” Economic growth in the United States will surpass that of the eurozone in 2022 and 2023 because of the conflict in Ukraine and Europe’s reliance on energy imports, Nolting said. “We now expect US growth to outpace the eurozone in both 2022 and 2023 due to the eurozone’s geographic proximity to the conflict zone and Europe’s structural backwardness as the world’s largest net energy importer.” The Russian economy will shrink 8% year over year in 2022, Deutsche Bank said, with zero growth in 2023. The United States will grow by 3.4% in 2022, while the eurozone will grow by 2.8% and China by 4. .5%, Deutsche said. The asset management branch is part of Deutsche Bank’s International Private Bank, which has more than 300 billion euros under management.

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