Payrolls, Eurozone Inflation and PMIs, China Slowdown

© . By Geoffrey Smith — The US is expected to add nearly half a million jobs again by March as the rise in the cost of living lures inactive workers back into the labor market. Eurozone inflation is hitting record highs and manufacturing is slowing sharply as the fallout from the war in Ukraine appears in economic data for the first time. Shares are expected to open the second quarter with a rebound after closing the first on a low, as the Covid-19 lockdowns in China and a slew of stock market suspensions raise concerns about the world’s second-largest economy. revive the world. The oil price is firmly above $100 a barrel again. Here’s what you need to know in the financial markets on Friday, April 1. 1. Payrolls see another strong increase; watch the employment rate It’s payroll day and the monthly employment report at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT) will cap a week’s worth of data from a labor market that remains as tight as a drum. The monthly magazine showed vacancies that were still close to record highs and the ‘quit percentage’ increased in March. are expected to have increased by 490,000, which can be seen as a step towards normalization after even bigger leaps earlier in the year when Covid-related restrictions were lifted. It is expected to have fallen to 3.7% from 3.8%, while growth is expected to slow to 0.4% from 0.6%, putting a bit of pressure on the Federal Reserve while trying to get up to speed with inflation overshooting. However, the most important element of the report is likely to be, amid suspicions that higher living costs will entice people to return to work. 2. Eurozone inflation hits record, UK energy prices soar – but Russian gas continues to flow Higher living costs are once again at the center of Europe on Friday, rising 7.5% in March, the . Worse is coming as energy prices continue to climb, so a 13-month low from S&P Global (NYSE:) came as no surprise. In the UK, a rise in the energy ceiling for households will come into effect, leading to immediate and sharp rises in bills for many consumers, especially poorer ones. The situation is even worse in North Africa, where inflation is driven by rising food prices, according to a new report from the UN’s World Food Programme. Both developments can be traced back, at least in part, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted world trade in grains, oil and gas. Russian gas, however, after an adjustment to new rules insisting on payment in rubles. The net effects of the new arrangements are cosmetic. As spot prices rose, transmission system data showed that Russia has shipped more gas to Europe than at any time in the past four months, as buyers relied more on their long-term contracts with Gazprom (MCX:). 3. Shares will open higher; Ford, GM plants down due to parts shortages US stock markets are expected to open higher after a dismal close to the first quarter, with all three major indices losing about 1.5%. At 06:15 AM ET (1015 GMT), they were up 210 points, or 0.6%, while also rising 0.6% and rising 0.8%. The mood is clouded by renewed fears of supply chain disruptions as China’s Covid-19 lockdowns expand, hitting more and more factories and logistics hubs. Ford and GM both said late on Thursday that they will do so due to component shortages. 4. China factories shrinkage; China’s Covid-19 figures remain a source of some controversy, but the , which covers the country’s smaller and independent companies, followed the state-dominated official by signaling a contraction in activity in March. It fell to 48.1 points, its lowest level in two years, from 50.4 in February. There was also new evidence of the unresolved problems in the country’s real estate sector, such as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange failing to meet an annual report submission deadline. Suspended companies included developers Shimao — previously seen as one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry — and Kaisa, one of China’s largest users of foreign bond markets. Chinese diplomats in Brussels later, but are not expected to signal a weakening of the country’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. 5. Oil Back Above $100 as OPEC+ Hits Buffers Crude oil prices regained momentum after taking a major blow earlier this week from President Joe Biden’s plan to unlock the strategic petroleum reserve. By 6:25 a.m. ET, futures were down 0.1% to $100.19 a barrel, having previously peaked at $100.84, while the global benchmark rose 0.1% to $104.85 a barrel. barrel. That follows a routine refusal Thursday by OPEC and its partners (mainly Russia) to increase production by no more than the planned 432,000 barrels per day from May 1. Anyone looking for extra barrels will have to look to Baker Hughes’ USA later on. in the day, where signs of drilling activity have sharply increased in recent months as the outlook for a long period of above-trend prices has improved.

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