Japan Q4 GDP Forecast Revised, Wholesale Price Wins Cloud Outlook

© . FILE PHOTO: Women in protective masks walk in a shopping district amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Tokyo, Japan, Feb. 15, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon By Kantaro Komiya TOKYO () – The Economy of Japan rose more than initially expected in the last quarter of 2021, but rising input prices likely kept wholesale inflation close to a record high in February, a sign of mounting risks to the fragile recovery, a poll showed. Revised gross domestic product (GDP) data is likely to show the world’s third-largest economy grew 5.6% year-on-year from October to December last year, slightly ahead of a preliminary reading of 5.4% growth , according to the poll of 17 economists. The poll found that the upgrade is largely the result of a projected 0.7% increase in capital spending, ahead of the preliminary 0.4% increase, reflecting robust data on corporate spending in the fourth quarter in a Ministry of Finance investigation this week. Still, analysts say the strong growth rate does not point to a full recovery of Japan from the blows of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Even after the upward revision, GDP levels in October-December 2019 will remain below pre-pandemic levels,” said Shinichiro Kobayashi, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE:) Research and Consulting. With COVID curbing consumption and the crisis in Ukraine clouding the outlook, many analysts expect Japan’s economic growth to slow or even contract in the current quarter. The direct blow from the war in Ukraine is likely to come from a spike in fuel and commodity prices, analysts say. Wholesale prices likely rose 8.7% in February from a year earlier, the poll found, which hovered near a record reached in November on the back of rising commodity and energy costs. Separate data shows that household spending is likely to have increased by 3.6% in January from a year earlier, the first increase in six months, the poll found. The government will release revised Q4 GDP data on March 9 at 8:50 am (2350 GMT, March 8) and household spending data on March 11 at 8:30 am (2330 GMT, March 10). The Bank of Japan will release wholesale inflation data on March 10 (2350 GMT, March 9) at 8:50 am. Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data on this website is not necessarily real-time or accurate. All CFDs (Stocks, Indices, Futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and therefore prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price meaning prices are indicative and not suitable for trading purposes . Therefore, Fusion Media does not bear any responsibility for any trading losses that you may incur as a result of using this data. Fusion Media or anyone associated with Fusion Media accepts no liability for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on any information, including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals on this website. Be fully informed about the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest forms of investment possible.

Leave a comment