Indian inflation likely to have fallen in February, but will recover soon

© . An employee controls price tags for the food products at a shop in a shopping mall in Kolkata, India, June 20, 2018. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/Files By Tushar Goenka BENGALURU () – Indian retail inflation is likely to have fallen marginally in February, thanks to lower food prices, economists in a poll who still warned that rising oil prices will drive inflation much higher in the coming months. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prices have skyrocketed – rising about 35% in March alone – which in turn will push fuel, transportation and other related components of inflation this month. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), likely fell to 5.93% yoy in February, from 6.01% in January, the March 3-9 poll of 36 economists predicted. Forecasts for the data, due to be released on March 14 around 1200 GMT, ranged between 5.70% and 6.40%. More than a quarter of respondents expected inflation to remain above the 6.0% cap of the RBI. “I expect the moderation in headlines in February to be mainly led by the food and beverage component, where adjusted monthly gains have softened from their recent peaks,” said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asian economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “There have been storm clouds coming for a while… the best way to describe inflation numbers from Q2 is that when it rains, it pours.” Petrol prices at gas stations, where Indians will feel the effect of higher crude prices most strongly, have barely changed, but it is too late for an increase in the coming weeks. “A sharp rise in prices (OTC:) following the announcement of the election results and passing them on to transportation costs would drive inflation,” said Kunal Kundu, Indian economist at Societe Generale (OTC:), referring to elections in five Indian states. in the past month, including the most populous, Uttar Pradesh. Asia’s third-largest economy grew 5.4% in the October-December quarter, slower than the 6.0% economists had forecast in a separate poll. The Reserve Bank of India, which focuses on growth, not inflation, has kept its interest rates stable at record lows for nearly two years, but will increase borrowing costs next quarter.[ECILT/IN] The latest poll also showed that January industrial production is likely to be up 1.5% from a year ago, compared to 0.4% in December. Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data on this website is not necessarily real-time or accurate. All CFDs (Stocks, Indices, Futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and therefore prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price meaning prices are indicative and not suitable for trading purposes . Therefore, Fusion Media does not bear any responsibility for any trading losses that you may incur as a result of using this data. Fusion Media or anyone associated with Fusion Media accepts no liability for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on any information, including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals on this website. Be fully informed about the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest forms of investment possible.

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